It’s Election Day, 2008. Hundreds of seats are up for grabs here in Ohio, as well as across the U.S. Weather wise, things couldn’t look better. Plenty of sunshine and temperatures near 70. I’m actually wondering if the great weather might keep folks outside instead of heading to the polls. I hope this isn’t the case, however.
The following article is from Lisa Habib at weather.com. It’s pretty interesting, hope you enjoy it.
Only two close elections might have had different outcomes — 1960 and 2000 — if the weather were different, the researchers say.
Above-Average Precip = Lower Voter Turnout
The researchers — who call their study “the most exhaustive empirical test of the weather-turnout thesis to date” — found that if it rains or snows significantly above the average amount for that day, the more likely voters will stay away from the polls in a presidential election.
And poor weather seems to help Republicans, which supports the political adage that “Republicans should pray for rain.”
The researchers looked back at weather conditions in the approximately 3,000 U.S. counties on the day of each presidential election from 1948 to 2000. And they matched those with voter turnout results.
They assumed that voters are acclimated to the normal weather for election day. But if there was an inch of rain more than normal, 0.9 percent fewer voters showed up at the polls. For every inch of snow above average, 0.5 percent fewer people voted.
Republicans ‘Pray for Rain’
The researchers figure bad weather may be the deciding factor for voters who are on the fence about going to the polls. And those are the type of people whom conventional wisdom says “may be disproportionately inclined to support the Democratic presidential candidate,” the researchers say. Hence, the “pray for rain” mantra for Republicans.
The study shows the Republican presidential candidate received an extra 2.5 percent of the vote for every 1-inch increase in rain above normal. For every 1-inch increase in snow above normal, the Republican candidate’s vote share increased by about 0.6 percent.
But that turnout difference generally was not enough to make a difference in the eventual outcomes.
Wet Years, Dry Years
The 1972, 1992, and 2000 elections stand out as elections in which rainy and/or snowy weather caused hundreds of thousands of voters to stay home, according to the research.
The 1952, 1960, 1964, 1968, 1976, and 1980 elections were relatively dry and few voters were put off by precipitation.
The researchers claim, though, that in close elections, weather conditions can be a determining factor of the outcome.
In 1960, they say John F. Kennedy benefited from relatively dry weather in the close race with Richard Nixon. They claim a rainy or snowy day would have put Nixon in the White House that year.
And in 2000, in which Florida’s results made the difference in the Electoral College, the researchers say weather may have hurt the Democrats just as much as all the “hanging chads” and court cases because it rained a lot in some Florida counties.
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